This is part 4 of the My Neighborhood News Network series on light rail arriving in Snohomish County. You can read part 1 here, part 2 here and part 3 here.

As Sound Transit’s Lynnwood Link light rail extension begins operating in South Snohomish County later this month, advocates have pointed to a range of benefits that will come with light rail transportation. Among them are easy access to jobs and housing without adding carbon dioxide or the costs of car ownership, especially as the Puget Sound region’s population grows. 

Some have questioned whether light rail will alleviate traffic issues in Puget Sound. Among them are Maggie Fimia –  a former Shoreline city councilmember, King County councilmember, Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) Transportation Policy Board member and founder of Smarter Transit –  and John Niles, an independent transportation policy researcher and president of Global Telematics. Both have voiced their opinion for some time that light rail will not resolve the problems of CO2 and traffic. Further, they say, it is better to spend tax money elsewhere.

In 2002, Fimia, Bellevue businessman Kemper Freeman Jr., and former KING Broadcasting public affairs director Emory Bund formed an anti-rail group called Sane Transit. The group sued Sound Transit in February 2002, stating that the reduced scope required Sound Transit to put the issue to another public vote. However, the courts decided that Sound Transit had legal authority to change the project’s scale.

“The ridership isn’t there,” Fimia said, referring to the voter-funded ST3, which will take the light rail from Lynnwood to Everett. “We have already spent money on roads; we should use them.”

Fimia and Niles said their calculations are based on PSRC information and that the Link light rail will make up fewer than 1% of the daily regional trips; most will be on a bus, not a light rail. Further, they say there is little demand for transit north of the Lynnwood Transit Center, and ridership for the ST3 extension to Evett will drop off once the newness has worn off.

The agency projects that the Lynnwood Link will have 47,000 to 55,000 daily riders by 2026. The Northgate station had over 3.31 million boardings in 2023.

Sound Transit Media Relations Manager John Gallagher said, “We are careful not to say that light rail will reduce congestion or traffic.”

He said the region is rapidly growing, which will result in more drivers on the road. A four-car light rail train, capable of 800 passengers, will allow people to get out of traffic and reliably reach their destination without unknown congestion delays.

“Seattle is now in the top 10 U.S. cities for traffic congestion, with the I-5 segment north one of the worst spots,” Gallagher said.

Studies in Europe and the United States have found that light rail positively impacts traffic congestion and the environment. 

Dr. Xavier Fageda, a researcher and professor at the University of Barcelona, said his research demonstrated  “that an increase in the supply of rail transport leads to less congestion, less travel time and less pollution.”

In published research for the journal, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Fageda found that cities with a rail system have an average of 7% less congestion, 1% less travel time and 3% less pollution than mid-sized European cities without a rail system.

Research published in the Journal of Transport Geography, “Impact of light rail on traffic congestion in Denver,” by Sutapa Bhattacharjee and Andrew R. Goetz in May 2012, also showed positive results in the U.S. 

“Overall, the three light rail corridors in operation have succeeded in lowering the rate of increase in the level of traffic on highways within the rail transit influence zone as compared to highways outside the influence zone.” Bhattacharjee and Goetz wrote about the impacts of Denver, Colorado’s light rail system.

Gallagher said that Sound Transit’s ridership numbers have consistently met the agency’s projections, adding that Northgate and Westlake are their busiest stops. He noted that, unlike in many other U.S. transit systems, Link light rail ridership quickly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels and set multiple days of record ridership.

“At present, we are estimating that the ridership on the 1 Line, which runs from Northgate to Angle Lake, will be between 2.37 and 3.39 million boardings per month by the end of this year,” Gallagher said. “We already had 2.5 million boardings in May, so this seems a reasonable projection.”

However, this does not mean people are giving up their cars. Sound Transit studies found that 70.3% of their respondents take light rail even though they have a reliable vehicle.

U.S. Census data from 2022 found that over half of Lynnwood, Edmonds, and Mountlake Terrace drivers drive alone. Less than 10% take public transportation, and about 9% carpool across the three cities.

There are also people who refuse to give up their cars, regardless of the available public transportation options, flat rate or not.

Cars have been essential to the U.S. and its economy since they became affordable in 1908 when Henry Ford introduced the gasoline-powered Model T. 

The presence of motor vehicles increased throughout the U.S., even during the Great Depression. U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal built thousands of miles of roads connecting cities and states between 1933 and 1938, with a pause in construction during World War II.

Richard F. Weingroff of the U.S. The Federal Highway Administration writes that after World War II, road networks returned to being the top priority as the U.S. became a significant world exporter and financial and political world leader. 

To further complicate the matter, state governors wanted the federal government to stop collecting gas taxes so the states could receive the revenue. Some governors were “even arguing that the federal government should get out of the highway business altogether,” Weingroff wrote.

On June 27, 1950, the United States entered the Korean War, and priorities shifted to military needs. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1952 authorized a “token” $25 million for the interstate system on a 50-50 matching basis.

In 1956, President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, also known as the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act. The highways were also considered necessary for national defense. The Federal-Aid Highway Act created the Highway Trust Fund, which would pay for 90% of the interstate system’s construction and provide a stable source of federal funding for constructing and maintaining the nation’s highways.

The Peter G. Davidson Foundation’s “The Highway Trust Fund Explained” states that 22% of highway infrastructure funding comes from federal sources. Of that funding, 83% is generated from an excise tax on gasoline and diesel, also known as the “gas tax.”

Washington state’s gas tax is $0.494 per gallon, and the federal gas tax is $0.184 per gallon, for a total of $0.678 per gallon. California has the highest gas tax in the U.S., at $0.698 per gallon.

After World War II, the U.S. experienced a baby boom because of the uptick in industry, resulting in a strong economy and middle class. This boom also created suburbs for those who didn’t want to live in the city and drove to work.

Cars would evolve into a rite of passage into adulthood, and those who developed a passion for cars would modify them for speed or aesthetics. But people still use their vehicles for utility, such as those with mobility issues who can’t walk long distances, have children who are active in extracurricular activities or live in rural areas that do not have public transportation. 

With growing concerns about climate change, vehicle power sources are beginning to change. An April 2024 Washington State Department of Ecology report says that electric car registration increased by 43%, accounting for 3% of all vehicles on the state’s roads. In addition, the report said that 20% of 2023 car sales were electric.

It’s also possible there may be fewer cars on the road in future generations. For starters, fewer young people are learning to drive. Research from the Brookings Institution found that fewer millennials drive for multiple reasons: climate change, lack of access to a car and a lack of funds to own and maintain a vehicle.

Community Transit and Sound Transit have streamlined their fee system to make things easier. Starting Sept. 1, Community Transit will charge a $2.50 flat rate for adults and remove commuter fees for those traveling between Snohomish and King County. Orca cards will also be available for $90 a month and can be used for the Link light rail and Sounder commuter train. Disabled, senior and Medicare fees will be $1.25 per trip or $45 monthly. The Link light rail has also switched pricing to a $3 flat rate rather than a prorated fee based on the distance traveled.

A study by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics found that the cost of car ownership spiked to over $8,000 annually in 2023. In contrast, an adult Orca card for the year is $1,080.

Another aspect to consider is that the housing topography will change with a higher population density in areas historically challenged by a lack of parking. A car might become impractical because there are no parking spots.

The 2024 Snohomish County Comprehensive Plan update projects a population increase of 308,352 people by 2044, totaling 1,136,309 countywide. Of that 2044 projection, 95.5% are predicted to live in urban growth areas. However, not every city agrees with the state’s housing plans or how to distribute the growth.

If Snohomish County’s 2021 population projections hold, the region will need more housing than it currently has. Lynnwood’s population is expected to grow from 43,212 to 63,735 by 2044. Edmonds will expand from 42,593 to 55,966, with Mountlake Terrace increasing from 21,543 to 34,710.

Recent housing laws passed by the Washington State Legislature also have implications for housing density and parking. Commonly known as the Middle Housing Bill or Missing Middle Housing Bill, House Bill 1110 requires cities to authorize minimum housing development densities and permit specific “middle housing” types in any zone that allows for detached single-family residences (RS zones). Middle housing includes housing types between detached single-family homes and larger apartment complexes, such as duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, townhouses, stacked flats, courtyard apartments and cottage housing. The requirements vary based on city population and do not apply to urban unincorporated areas.

Cities with populations between 25,000 and 75,000 residents (including Edmonds and Lynnwood ) must allow a minimum of two units per lot that permits detached single-family residences. That number is increased to four units per lot in two instances: if the lot is within one-quarter mile walking distance of a bus rapid transit station or at least one affordable housing unit is provided for a minimum of 50 years.

Under HB 1110, all cities – including Mountlake Terrace  –  must allow a minimum of two middle-housing dwelling units per lot in predominantly residential zones.

Housing and density

Cities depend on growth to sustain themselves, which can create a cycle. Growth requires revenue, which in turn requires taxes, which in turn requires people and businesses, which in turn requires growth. The City of Lynnwood began planning for the influx of people more than 30 years ago.

Lynnwood Community Planning Manager Karl Almgren explained that the city had public transportation in mind when it created the City Center plans in 1993, three years before the light rail system was approved.

According to Almgren, in 1993 the city developed a document called Legacy Lynnwood that highlighted the idea of creating a downtown in the city’s core, in the area of 44th Avenue West and 196th Street Southwest. Initially called the Central Business District, that core was renamed Lynnwood City Center in early 2000. The plan was adopted in 2005. 

The initial design for the Lynnwood Transit Center – a key element of the Lynnwood City Center plan – centered around buses. That changed with voter approval of the Sound Transit 2 in 2008, “which would bring the light rail service to Lynnwood Transit Center and ultimately become Lynnwood City Center station,” Almgren said.

The City of Lynnwood planned a transit-oriented City Center with housing and shopping options nearby. Almgren said that the current Northpoint Village — planned for the large lot just north of the City Center station — is a good representation of the market’s response to Lynnwood’s vision.

“The master plan for what was formerly called Lynnwood Square is essentially 80 acres of transit-oriented development, which includes approximately 3,970 dwelling units, over 500,000 square feet of office [space] and over 250,000 square feet of retail,” Almgren said.

Several projects have been built or are under construction near the transit center, including Kinect@Lynnwood, which has 239 multifamily units, and Ember Apartments, which has 361 units with about 10,000 square feet of retail. Another site is under construction near the station for workforce housing. Also, a project in the permitting process will add 316 units and about 6,000 square feet of retail space.

Further, to accommodate the influx of people, Lynnwood improved its utilities throughout the area, which are being readied for water and sewer access, and also added new standards for pedestrian and bicycle movement, Almgrem said.

“So, I would say what was envisioned for City Center is happening,” he said. “Although it’s happening a little bit differently than we had anticipated.” 

Affordable housing is also in the mix with new light rail stations. Sound Transit issued a notice of intent to award a transit-oriented development project to Housing Hope, an Everett-based nonprofit housing developer. This 1.5-acre project will provide 167 affordable units across two buildings near the City Center station.

In Edmonds, the city is updating its 2044 Comprehensive Plan, Everyone’s Edmonds, to accommodate future growth.

“The draft growth alternatives that are currently in environmental analysis focus on growth in our neighborhood centers and hubs,” said Edmonds Director of Community, Culture and Economic Development Todd Tatum. “The plan will be completed by the end of 2024.”

Washington State Growth Management Act specifies transportation as a required element of the Comprehensive Plan, and that system development supports the broader, long-range goals for community development.

Tatum said although Edmonds does not have a stop on the light rail, the city – like the rest of the region – will grow.

“We’ll continue to see challenges in the availability of affordable housing,” Tatum said. “But we’re also uniquely positioned as an arts, culture and dining destination to attract visitors and residents who are searching for the quality of life that Edmonds has to offer.”

When it comes to using light rail, Edmonds residents depend on a strong bus infrastructure to get to the stations. part of the challenge for Edmonds residents may be the city’s current bus infrastructure. Tatum said that Edmonds needs frequent “last mile” bus connections – the final commuter segment between the light rail and the passenger’s destination – are essential to encourage Edmonds ridership. 

Mountlake Terrace has also made changes in preparation for the opening of the Sound Transit light rail station there. Given the city’s size of just 4.1 square miles, officials recognized that growth will be vertical. So in 2019, the Mountlake Terrace City Council approved an updated plan for its downtown core, known as Town Center, that will allow up to 12-story buildings in areas closest to the light rail station.

The updated plan creates three land use districts and their associated zoning, with the tallest buildings adjacent to I-5 and the light rail station. Heights will be reduced as the zoning gets closer to single-family residential areas.

 “All our dreams are possible now,” longtime City Councilmember Laura Sonmore said after the plan’s approval in 2019. “I can’t wait to see what our city will grow into.”

The most visible housing development is Terrace Station, a three-building, mixed-use 14.8-acre project built along the 1 Line in Mountlake Terrace. In the planning stages is the Candela apartments at 5901 236th St. S.W., just east of the light rail station. The complex will have two eight-story buildings with 425 units, 5,000 square feet of commercial space, a courtyard and underground parking.

Changes are also planned for the city’s Town Center, which will be connected to the light rail station via the $5.6 million Transit Connection Corridor Project. It will upgrade trails through Veterans Memorial Park and create a pedestrian plaza near the light rail station to serve residents and commuters.

One of the most visible Town Center developments will be on the former Roger’s Marketplace property, where a seven-story, mixed-use residential development is planned. City leaders also have proposed turning 57th Avenue West, now running through the West Plaza Shopping Center, into a retail-oriented, pedestrian-friendly corridor.

The 57th Avenue West project is included in Phase 3 of the city’s Main Street project, which will rebuild 56th Avenue West between 236th and 230th Streets Southwest and improve pedestrian and bicycle safety. Main Street Phase 1 — the reconstruction of 236th between 56th Avenue West and I-5 — was completed in 2020 and cost $16.56 million. Funding is being sought to complete Phase 2, which would reconstruct 56th Avenue West from 236th to 230th Streets Southwest with many of the same improvements.

With the arrival of light rail, the Mountlake Terrace City Council has acknowledged that future growth and population density are inevitable.

“The light rail is coming Aug.30, and we just need to start getting ready for whatever is going to happen to this city because people are going to come here whether we want them to or not,” Mayor Kyoko Matsumoto Wright said during the council’s June 6 meeting.

— By Rick Sinnett