Around here, November is typically the wettest month of the year in terms of average total precipitation. You can see in the above graphic that the normal amount of total precipitation for the month of November is just over six inches, higher than every other month. The number of storms tend to ramp up this time of year, contributing to this high total.
While the first two days of the new month were sunny and dry, the next several days are not looking that way. The rain train is back, with several systems poised to take aim at us, bringing multiple bouts of rain.
Look at the European ensemble for 24-hour precipitation at Paine Field, shown above.
The first system is expected to arrive Tuesday morning, with rain expected for a good part of the day. This rain could be heavy at times. However, a more potent system that moves onshore in Canada will impact us on Wednesday, which will bring us more rain and potentially quite gusty conditions, especially later in the day. The European ensemble average suggests gusts of 40 mph is possible.
Regardless of how high the exact wind gusts get on Wednesday, it should be windy enough to blow many of the remaining leaves off trees. These leaves could fall onto homes and into gutters, which could be problematic with the rain expected. I would suggest keeping an eye on those gutters and clean them out as needed—safely, of course. Please don’t get on ladders when it’s raining outside. Also, be sure to clear your storm drains!
A third storm is expected Thursday into Friday. Rain could be heavy at times, as well. With all the rain falling this week, there is the chance that some rivers could experience water rises. Some streams and creeks could experience the same. This is by no means a for-sure thing, but it is something to pay attention to, especially if you live in a flood-prone area.
Models differ in how much total rainfall we could see by the end of the week. The GFS Ensemble averages a little over an inch total, while the European Ensemble averages a little over two inches (both values are for Paine Field). Total values will likely fall within that range. If we fall within the Olympic rain shadow at times, our total precipitation could fall on the lower end of that spectrum. Other areas of the state, like the coast and mountains, will likely see much more impressive totals, potentially exceeding four inches.
Below shows the summary of this week’s forecast.
Even though this week is looking quite damp, there may be some hope this weekend, as it is looking dry (albeit chilly) at this point. I don’t know about you, but I’m looking forward to this wet weather; it gives me an excuse to hunker down inside with a nice warm blanket and listen to the calming sound of rain on the roof.
— By Kelsie Knowles
Kelsie Knowles is a meteorologist and recent University of Washington graduate who lives in north Lynnwood. After writing weather blogs as a KOMO News intern, she discovered a passion for writing about weather. You can learn more in her blog www.wxnoggin.com and you can also follow her on Twitter at @kels_wx3.