Under the weather: More April showers expected over the weekend

Besides a couple sporadic spring-like days, it hasn’t felt too much like spring so far, especially over the month of April. Whoever coined the adage “April showers brings May flowers” has been spot on — at least for the first half of the phrase.

For the first 19 days of the month, we’ve had 2.1 inches of rainfall at Paine Field, which is slightly above average (1.73 inches). When we compare this total to previous years (since 1999), 2023 ranks as the eighth wettest during this same period. For reference, the wettest April 1-April 19 stretch occurred back in 2018 with a total of 4.20 inches.

It has seemed like we’ve gotten a lot of rain so far this month (we’ve had measurable rainfall 15 out of 19 days), but in reality, it hasn’t amounted to that much out of the ordinary.

It probably seems like more because people are itching for some warmer and drier weather. After all, we haven’t had temperatures higher than 65 degrees since Oct.18!

On average, we usually see our first 65-degree day by early April, but here we are, in the final days of the month, not having seen such a day. The last time we hadn’t seen a 65-degree day by this time in April was back in 2017 — when it didn’t occur until May 3!

Nevertheless, I have good news and bad news.

The good news is that by this time next week, we may finally reach that threshold. The bad news is that we still have some rain to contend with before we get there.

On Friday, we will likely see areas of lingering showers as Thursday’s system exits the area, but overall, it shouldn’t amount to much. We may see some breaks in the rain, but mostly cloudy skies are still expected. Another weak system is expected to bring some more showers on Saturday, but again, not much rainfall is expected. You can see this trend in the total precipitation plume for KPAE below, with most ensemble members showing a slight incline over the course of Friday and Saturday.

Sunday looks to be the wettest day of the weekend with more widespread rain possible. This will likely transition to showery conditions as we head into Monday.

Highs during this time are expected to be in the low-to-mid 50s, which is a bit cooler than normal at this point of the year.

By Tuesday, however, upper-level ridging begins to develop, which will help to (finally!) dry us out. In the image above, you can see how most ensemble members begin to “flatline” by then.

For the second half of next week, models are suggesting that we may finally see a bit of a warming trend which, as I previously mentioned, may get us to our first 65-degree day since October. By next weekend, some areas could even see their first 70-degree day of the year!

This is still over a week away, meaning there’s time for things to change, but at this point, it is looking like we will see a stretch of some drier and warmer weather—at least compared to what we’ve seen lately.

Have a great weekend!

— By Kelsie Nelson

Kelsie Nelson is a meteorologist and recent University of Washington graduate who grew up in Lynnwood and now lives in Kenmore. After writing weather blogs as a KOMO News intern, she discovered a passion for writing about weather. You can learn more in her blog www.wxnoggin.com and you can also follow her on Twitter at @kels_wx3. Questions can be directed to Kelsie at kelsie@myedmondsnews.com.


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