Under the Weather: A few more wet days, then we’re looking dry and warm

It has been a wet couple of days across Western Washington, with the first storm of fall really packing a punch. A combination of rain and wind swept across the region, and it really felt like fall had arrived.

Below is a graphic that shows the amount of rain that has fallen from 12 a.m. Wednesday through 4 p.m. Thursday. Some of the totals across Western Washington are staggering. A station near Lake Quinault measured 5.58 inches! The totals in Southwest Snohomish County were modest compared to that, but we still got a decent amount of rain.

The Port of Edmonds also has a weather station (although data from that station is not shown above), and during the same time period, it measured 0.89 inches.

Another system is expected to impact our area Friday, with rain and breezy conditions once again. Rain totals are expected to be between .50 and .75 inches in our region, while areas near the coast and mountains should get quite a bit more. Winds could also gust over 30 mph in some spots.

In my previous article, I mentioned how another atmospheric river was expected for this weekend. However, models are now showing this atmospheric river—which initially looked poised to strike our area —aiming north of us into Canada. You can see this in the following image, showing the column-integrated water vapor product from the UW-WRF model.

This means that instead of another big soaking, we should see some run-of-the-mill rain following the system on Friday — nothing that we aren’t accustomed to. These showers should primarily impact us on Saturday. By Sunday, besides the chance for a few lingering isolated showers, we’re looking dry.

But the dry weather doesn’t end Sunday. Although fall has officially arrived, the summer-like weather makes a comeback. The reason for this is an upper ridge of high pressure over the area, which acts as a barrier for incoming storms, deflecting them away from us. The sinking air (called subsidence) associated with high pressure will help clear us out and create nice weather for the week.

Look at what the GFS Ensemble shows for temperatures at Paine Field in Everett for next week (I will explain ensembles in a future article). By mid-week, temperatures in the 70s are possible. To give some perspective, the normal high temperature by that time is in the low to mid-60s.

The warm and dry weather will soon become more and more scarce as fall progresses. My advice? Enjoy it while we still have it

Here’s your weekend weather snapshot for the region. As mentioned, rain sticks around through Saturday—primarily Friday—before beginning to dry out Sunday.

— By Kelsie Knowles

Kelsie Knowles is a meteorologist and recent University of Washington graduate who lives in north Lynnwood. After writing weather blogs as a KOMO News intern, she discovered a passion for writing about weather. You can learn more in her blog www.wxnoggin.com and you can also follow her on Twitter at @kels_wx3.


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