With ongoing changes in data reporting at both the county and state levels, we are adjusting our reports to you based on data made available from the Snohomish Health District and the Washington State Department of Health. Rather than generating our own graphics, we are now using the charts and table provided by these agencies. These report the same data we have been providing, but with a different look and feel. We plan to report to you biweekly, alternating between the county health district and state department of health as our primary source.

Note that this week both agencies are employing revised methodologies for reporting death statistics and testing (overall numbers, positive and negative results), which correct some faulty assumptions in the earlier protocols. Details and explanations of these changes, how they are being implemented, and how they affect previously reported numbers are available for death statistics here and here, and for testing here.

Friday’s update focuses on Snohomish County and provides an overview of the weekly Snohomish Health District report published on June 19 and covering the period through June 13 (see full report with the complete set of charts and tables here.

Case totals are illustrated in two ways. The Cumulative Case chart shows the progress of the COVID infection as it spread throughout Snohomish County, tracing how the rapid increase in cases recorded in late March and early April has begun to level off in recent weeks. This trend is further illustrated by the Number of Cases Reported by Date chart, which shows tells a similar story comparing the late March period where more than 100 new cases were being reported each day tapering down to fewer than 20 per day at present.

The following table drills down to provide a city-by-city breakdown of the total number of cases and the number of recoveries, total number of cases and the percent of total cases for local jurisdictions in Snohomish County.

The county is also following the two-week rolling average of new cases, a critical measure in determining eligibility to move to a higher phase of reopening under Gov. Inslee’s Stay Start plan.  As part of its successful application to move to Phase 2 reopening, the county had to document new cases at 25 or less per 100,000 population over a two-week period.  As the following chart illustrates, Snohomish County has now achieved that goal, with 21.5 cases per 100,000 as of the two-week period ending June 13.

Overall status of current cases indicates an increasing number of recoveries, while numbers of those still ill (in isolation, hospitalized) are decreasing, and deceased remain relatively low.

In addition to tracking deaths by overall numbers, the County is also monitoring deaths by age group.  The following two charts compare the overall caseload by age with deaths by age, and provide a stark reminder that while most COVID-19 cases occur in people 30-60 years old, it is particularly deadly for older patients with more than 75 percent of deaths occurring in the 70-plus demographic.

As the following table illustrates, community contact remains the overwhelming source of infection, accounting for more than a third of the cases. The message here is clear: Don’t back off on social distancing, wearing masks, and avoiding large groups. (Before you ask, nosocomial means originating in a hospital)

Because the COVID-19 incubation period averages two weeks and these data are current only through June 13, they are too recent to show any potential increase in infections coincident with Snohomish County’s June 5 move to Phase 2 reopening. We continue to monitor data daily, and will report any changes as they occur.

Testing in Snohomish County continues at a steady pace with approximately 3000 conducted in the past week, as illustrated by the weekly and cumulative test bar charts below. Note that the most recent data (June 9-15) is incomplete and will be updated in the next version of the charts.

The Snohomish Health District has announced that it will be expanding its community-based testing operations for the week of June 22 to the following locations:

• Tuesday, June 23 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. at McCollum Park located at 600 128th St. S.E. in Everett
• Wednesday, June 24 from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the Sno-Isle Libraries branch located at 1070 Village Way in Monroe
• Thursday, June 25 from noon to 7 p.m. at McCollum Park
• Friday, June 26 from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the Sno-Isle Libraries branch located at 311 Maple Ave. in Snohomish
• Saturday, June 27 from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. at McCollum Park

Additional information on how to get an appointment and get tested is available here.

— By Larry Vogel