Under the Weather: Uncertainty and weather forecasting in a chaotic system

Most of us, if not all of us, have seen a forecast graphic similar to the one pictured below. Temperatures are shown as specific numbers, such as 72° or 69°. This is called a “deterministic” forecast, which is a forecast that doesn’t show any uncertainty. While people tend to like this approach to forecasting, it…

Under the Weather: Fall storms get off to an early start with an atmospheric river

  Autumn has only just begun, but we’re already expecting the stormy weather that we’re accustomed to seeing this time of year. On Wednesday, an atmospheric river is expected to take aim directly at the Pacific Northwest, bringing with it some significant rainfall. What is an atmospheric river? I wrote an article about this phenomenon…